On November 20th of this year, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz is hosting the first Compact with Africa summit under his leadership. The initiative, launched by Germany in 2017 through the G20 Finance Track, aims to improve the investment conditions in participating African countries and, ultimately, promote European investments in Africa. The track record is mixed. We will discuss the reasons for this, the status of the initiative, and how it can be designed to be more successful for all parties and geared towards sustainable economic growth with representatives from academia, business, and politics.

The program is structured as follows:

• Welcome by Member of Parliament Dr Karamba Diaby
• Keynote speech by Prof. Stefan Liebing: “Between Wishful Thinking and Reality: A New Perspective on Investment Opportunities for German Companies in Africa”
• Presentation on Rwanda (Students from Hochschule Flensburg – Flensburg University of Applied Sciences): “Realistic Opportunities for Economic Cooperation, Using Rwanda as an Example”
• Q&A Session
• Closing remark

The panel discussion is moderated by Sabine Odhiambo (Secretary General of the Deutsche Afrika Stiftung – German Africa Foundation

The number of participants is limited to 40 people. Please confirm your participation no later than November 6th via email to karamba.diaby@bundestag.de. Late registrations cannot be considered. When registering, please provide your name and date of birth.

We look forward to your participation in this exciting event, which will be conducted in German with English translation.

Journalist Mercy Abang spoke with CEO of Conjuncta Prof Dr Stefan Liebing, MEP Hildegard Bentele, Head of Division for Pan-African Issues, Southern Africa, African Union and Great Lakes Region at the Federal Foreign Office Sarah Bernardy, and accomplished investigative Journalist Tomi Oladipo and Hannah Ajala about the prospects of the EU fostering a more integrated strategy for connecting Africa and Europe. We would like to thank HE Ambassador of Malawi to Germany Joseph John Mpinganjira for attending the panel discussion.

The debate took place as part of United Europe’s EU-Africa Advocacy Seminar: “An African Perspective on EU Africa Relations, a shared vision for both continents”. United Europe’s recently elected Vice President, Cathryn Clüver-Ashbrook alongside Secretary General at the German Africa Foundation (DAS) Sabine Odhiambo, commenced the seminar with captivating keynote speeches followed by contributions from Fatu Ogwuche (CEO at BigTechThisWeek), Muhammad Sani (Former Commissioner of Kaduna State, Nigeria), Emmanuel Uwandu (CEO at GAS360), Ferdinand Pavel (Director at EY), Cheta Nwanze (Analyst at SBM Intelligence). You can see a recording of the seminar on United Europe’s YouTube Channel.

Below please find a summary of some of the debate’s interventions and opinions of our guests on selected topics.

Journalist Mercy Abang initiated the debate by recognizing the EU’s commitment to human rights, which is a widely shared perspective in the Global North. However, recent events have led to criticism of the EU’s response to crises, particularly the plight of migrants from Africa in the Mediterranean. The sinking boat carrying migrants highlights either potential hypocrisy in crisis management or, at the very least an apparent blind spot in addressing the African crisis, Abang said.

MEP Hildegard Bentele acknowledged the importance of honest and open dialogue about Europe’s interests in Africa. Global Gateway, a European exercise aimed at providing digitization and infrastructure to Africa, has faced challenges and to compete with other global powers, the EU needs to increase efficiency and agility: “The limited awareness of the Global Gateway initiative in Africa is concerning and the EU is actively pursuing to improve visibility,” Bentele said. Observers have noted that interregional activities within Africa seem to take precedence over Europe’s Global Gateway initiative. The EU’s lack of unity and perception as individual member states instead of a cohesive entity is part of the problem. The concept of ‘Team Europe’ needs to be strengthened, Bentele concluded.

Stefan Liebing, CEO of Conjuncta, highlighted that Africa’s population growth demands the creation of 20 million new jobs each year and that Europe has a vested interest in supporting Africa to prevent deepening migration challenges. Finding common ground is essential for both parties, he said: “As someone who has headed the Afrika Verein, I have noticed a recurring theme in speeches over the past two decades: Africa’s tremendous potential. Instead of dwelling on what divides us, it is time to shift focus towards identifying mutual interests and shared goals.”  The German trade volume with Africa is about as high as German trade with nations like Czech Republik or Denmark. It is important to address this disparity and foster stronger economic ties. Currently, there is a rising group of African countries emerging as energy providers and recipients of new green energy payments substituting petrodollars. Europe with its energy needs, presents Africa with substantial opportunities for collaboration. There exists a significant overlap where our efforts can intertwine and yield fruitful results.

To effect change, two critical areas require attention:

1. Mitigating Risk Aversion: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) tend to be more risk-averse compared to multinational corporations, which have the capacity to absorb potential failures. To encourage SMEs to engage with African markets, we need to provide them with increased access to finance and guaranteeing instruments. Existing banking regulations often hinder European banks from financing large-scale projects. A fair distribution of risks between the public and private sectors, along with regulatory adjustments, is necessary to facilitate financing opportunities.
2. Enhancing Education and Collaboration: Many German SMEs lack familiarity with African markets and require education and support to expand their horizons. Creating success stories in each African country will play a pivotal role in changing the mindset of German entrepreneurs. To achieve this, a collaborative effort involving the German government, embassies, financial institutions, and businesses is needed. Establishing one significant success story will provide the impetus required to alter perceptions and convince entrepreneurs that the risk lies in not engaging with Africa. Additionally, exploring innovative financing models and developing new organizational systems tailored to the African continent’s unique challenges are necessary.

Furthermore, Europe must fulfill its climate commitments by mobilizing a substantial amount of green energy imports such as hydrogen, to replace oil, gas, and coal. Africa, with its abundance of sun and wind resources, can be a vital partner in producing hydrogen competitively and sustainably. It is vital to learn from previous discussions and accelerate progress in this area.

The challenge of job creation in Africa demands concerted efforts and collaboration. It is time to look beyond differences and focus on shared interests, Liebing stressed. Facilitating financial access, promoting education, and fostering innovative financing models will lay the groundwork for increased European engagement in Africa. By embracing these opportunities, Europe can bolster its energy security, meet climate targets, and contribute to Africa’s development while avoiding future migration challenges. “The time for meaningful action and cooperation is now, and together, we can build a stronger future for both continents,” Liebing concludes.

Sarah Bernardy, Head of Division for Pan-African issues, Southern Africa, African Union and Great Lakes at the Federal Foreign Office, referred to founding documents of the African Union and emphasised that human rights are universal values and should not be seen or phrased as „European values“. Furthermore, the majority of Africans prefer democracy over other political systems and endorse democratic norms. Asked about visa application procedures that seemed to be particularly long for Africans, Ms. Bernardy said that she understood the frustration if people had to wait for long time for a visa and that the Federal Foreign Office was working on digitalisation of visa procedures. However, visa requirements did not differ from one region to another. With regard to foreign investment in African countries, investment conditions were often not attractive enough for foreign investors. „It is crucial to establish the right framework and uphold the rule of law. Without these essential elements, a significant portion of what is often referred to as “risk capital” ends up being lost, diverting funds that should be invested directly into the project itself.“ Compared to e.g. Chinese investment in infrastructure projects, European and German engagement in Africa may not always be immediately visible, since a lot of German and EU funding was spent in structures and frameworks to enable sustainable development and business growth. Recognizing that there is still much work to be done, Germany and the EU remain committed to investing in these endeavors and Global Gateway would be one example for this commitment.

Investigative Journalist Tomi Olidapo thinks that it is time for Europe to return to the drawing board and explore alternative solutions. Europe needs to navigate its double standards and reimagine solutions.

When Nigeria sought military assistance in its fight against Boko Haram, the United States declined due to concerns over Nigeria’s military human rights record. This decision highlights the complexities surrounding international support in the face of such challenges. However, it also raises questions about the selective approach taken by certain countries when offering solutions. “Consider the recent events in Chad. Following the death of Idriss Deby, President Emmanuel Macron of France arrived in Chad and showed support by embracing Deby’s son, who then assumed power through a coup. This situation exposes a discrepancy in how democratic principles and the rule of law are upheld by Europeans. Such inconsistencies give rise to legitimate concerns about the European Union’s stance and actions. It begs the question: What can we truly expect from the EU?” Olidapo said.

Many of the challenges on the African continent extend beyond security concerns and encompass issues of development and education. While Europe focuses on attracting Africa’s skilled workers to meet its own interests, it is crucial to consider the consequences for Africa as a whole. “We must reflect on what these skilled individuals leave behind and the impact on the continent’s progress. The EU-Africa relationship is riddled with double standards and inconsistencies, particularly when it comes to offering solutions.” It is crucial to acknowledge the limitations of current approaches and reimagine more effective strategies. By engaging with African countries individually and tailoring solutions to their specific needs, Europe can better address the development and educational challenges that underpin many of the issues on the continent. As Europe pursues its own interests, it must also consider the consequences for Africa as a whole, striving for a more equitable and mutually beneficial partnership, Olidapo concludes.

We extend our heartfelt gratitude to contributors, speakers and participants for joining us in Berlin and online.

Guests included, among others,  Lars Klingbeil, Chairman of the SPD, Member of the German Bundestag, Dr Robert Habeck, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, Dr Magnus Brunner, Minister of Finance of the Republic of Austria, Dr Daniel Risch, Head of Government of the Principality of Liechtenstein and Günther H. Oettinger, President of United Europe.

All speeches and panel discussions can be found at the following link (in German language). Please find attached brief summaries of individual speeches and statements from some panel discussions.

Lars Klingbeil, Chairman of the SPD, Member of the Bundestag: Introductory Keynote: Politics in Times of Constant Change

The transition to a climate-neutral and digital society is the most important socio-political project of the coming years.

We have to recognise that the world is in upheaval, that new centres of power are emerging and that the rule-based order as we know it is under pressure. A strong Europe is one of the most important aspects if this transformation is to succeed.

Nevertheless, the forthcoming decade or two will likely be marked by significant turbulences, requiring us to navigate numerous challenges. It is crucial to acknowledge that Europe does not hold sole responsibility for driving this process. Rather our focus should lie on fostering resilient supply chains, harnessing resources efficiently, and establishing novel free trade zones. In Europe, we must understand that this transformation is not only an economic endeavour but rather a political undertaking.

China is pursuing a tough, state-controlled industrial policy; in the US, too, we see massive state intervention in economic policy with the Inflation Reduction Act. Europe has long shaped global economic policy; now we need a new interplay of state and market, a policy along the broad lines of decarbonisation, digitalisation and resilience. New goals need to be agreed upon at the European level. Not “Europe first”, but “Europe fast.”. We must expedite planning procedures and implement smart regulations while avoiding excessive centralization at the European level. The current fragmentation of the single market necessitates a focus on deepening its integration. This involves realizing the potential of a digital union further developing capital markets, completing the banking union, and establishing a European energy union with enhanced grid and storage capacities. Moreover, we should actively pursue new free trade agreements and increase investment in strategic partnerships.

See the full speech here.

The Political Interview with Dr Robert Habeck, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action and Gerald Braunberger, Publisher, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

For Europe to maintain its competitiveness and prosperity, tangible solidarity in infrastructure is essential. The European Commission holds a pivotal position in this regard, as Europe demonstrates its resilience under pressure. When it comes to the green transition, Europe exhibits a collective commitment, despite its diversity as evident in initiatives such as the Green Deal, the ongoing Fit for 55 negotiations, and the implementation of ETS1 and ETS 2.

Regarding European Competitiveness, the American “Inflation Reduction Act” is viewed as a declaration of war. Countries like the United States and others are making investments despite their significant national debts, setting them apart from Europe on a global scale.

Non-European nations such as the US and South Korea are actively pursuing investments in solar and hydrogen energy. If we fail to keep pace with these developments, we risk losing out on the opportunities they present. Europe’s commitment to fiscal discipline aligns with the fundamental principles of a market economy which is commendable. However, in sports like football or handball, if the opposing team plays aggressively and the referee fails to enforce the rules, victory becomes elusive. Nonetheless, despite the slightly pessimistic sentiment, recent years have demonstrated Europe’s true capabilities.

If we can address the energy crisis, we can also confront the climate crisis and achieve our targets. While we may not have reached that point just yet, we possess the potential to do so. Cultivating a positive outlook is crucial in combating internal divisions. Otherwise, the voices that don’t want a solution will win, and then there will be no solution.

Please find the full interview here.

Strengthening Europe’s Energy Supply – Focus on Competitiveness

A panel with Sven Astheimer, Head of Corporate Affairs, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Prof. Dr Lion Hirth, Professor of Energy Policy, Hertie School, Dr Markus Krebber, Chairman of the Executive Board, RWE AG, and Christian Kullmann, Chairman of the Executive Board, Evonik Industries AG.

Sven Astheimer: How competitive is Europe?

Christian Kullmann: The statement suggests a rhetorical question, implying that Europe’s competitiveness is currently lagging behind. Two examples can be provided to support this claim: 30% of sales are made in the USA, where the cost of a kilowatt hour is 1 to 2 cents. Meanwhile, in Germany, discussions are underway to implement an industrial electricity price of about 6 cents per kilowatt. We are talking about 6 cents, and we deliberately do not mention that there will be taxes and levies on top of that. Thus, the focus should not be on whether Europe is competitive, but rather on the necessity of implementing significant changes.

Sven Astheimer: What specific commitments can you offer to enhance our competitiveness in the future?

Dr Markus Krebber: Europe needs to consistently compete with non-green energy supply policies. Such competition hampers Europe’s competitiveness and emphasizes the importance of considering climate protection as a global consensus that involves all regions.

Sven Astheimer: Is the German government on the right track with its energy and industrial policy?

Prof. Dr Lion Hirth: The price of energy is crucial. Currently, subsidizing electricity with taxpayers’ money means that the funds are missing elsewhere. This is a question that needs to be decided politically. What should the price of electricity be? The energy-intensive industry will have to adapt, i.e., utilize electricity when wind and solar power are available. However, this is not possible if energy-intensive companies require electricity constantly, regardless of fluctuating prices. The mistake we should avoid is using an industrial electricity price to make companies believe that the electricity price will remain at 4, 5, or 6 cents, thereby reinforcing the outdated notion of permanently operating base load plants. If we aim to support the industry, we must embrace industrial flexibility, which will vary across sectors and is not free.

See the full discussion here.

Günther H. Oettinger, President of United Europe: The opening impulse of the 2nd conference day:
Peace, values, economic strength – an Agenda 2030 for Germany and Europe

Next year is set to be a pivotal moment for both European and US politics, as it will be a super-election year that shapes the tone for the entire next decade. Currently, we are witnessing diverse trends across Europe. On one hand, conservatives are maintaining or even strengthening their positions, – as evident in Greece and possibly Spain. There is also a possibility of populist movements gaining ground. To approach the European elections seriously, it is crucial to strengthen democratic parties rather than resorting to protest votes on either extreme. Unfortunately, Europe is lagging behind.

Germany is anticipated to experience a year of recession and stagnation all year, while the world is growing at a rate of 3 or 4 percent, and Europe is falling behind. This issue revolves around competitiveness: if we fail to reinforce our strengths and address our shortcomings, Europe’s influence and authority will decline. We must also establish a technological advantage in key areas such as defence, mobility, communications and engineering. Regrettably, I observe insufficient collective efforts to preserve and restore our position, particularly in Germany. The country index by ZEW, commissioned by the Foundation for Family Businesses, has shown that Germany has dropped from 14th to 18th place among 21 democratic industrialized countries. That’s not the Champions League.

There appears to be a lack of recognition that innovation is essential for sustained prosperity.

The upcoming US election in November carries the possibility of Trump returning to power. We must hope that the voters will protect us from that outcome. The question arises: Are we capable of global politics? Can we speak with a unified voice? We are far from prepared, but time is running out. If Trump is reelected, the focus will shift to America First, rather than the transatlantic partnership, NATO, the global economy, or the rules-based order. It disappoints me to see a country spending months debating thermal energy legislation and neglecting crucial aspects of the German discourse on Europe’s future. We are consistently lagging behind. Germany must finally realise the significance of t trade agreements. If we had not opposed TTIP due to concerns about chlorinated chicken, the Inflation Reduction Act would not be detrimental to the German industry. We have put the Mercosur agreement, the fastest-growing market after Asia, on hold. RCEP poses a significant challenge, and if it becomes the benchmark, Europe will be left behind.

We must learn at an accelerated pace and draw clearer conclusions. Europe is sluggish, and Germany in particular is moving too slowly.

The next year will determine the direction of European policy, and three conceivable trends emerge. Firstly, there could be a left-liberal, green and socialist majority. Secondly, we might witness the formation of another significant Labor coalition. Lastly, a conservative development is possible, but it is unlikely without populists holding a majority position. The question remains: Where is populism still considered acceptable, and where is radicalism, anti-Europeanism, malice or even contempt for all values or the destruction of Europe as genuine objectives? Consider the AFD and Le Pen.

I implore all of us to generate interest n the European elections. Failing to maintain and enhance prosperity will only fuel the rise of extreme ideologies from both the right and left.

See the full speech here.

Panel – Beyond the Boys’ Club: Why Diversity in Leadership gives Europe a competitive edge and how we get there

Under the chairmanship of Johannes Pennekamp, Head of Department, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Regine Büttner, Global Board Member Human Resources for DHL Express (until 2022), member of the Supervisory Board and founder of the FEM Factory, Tanja Gönner, Chief Executive, BDI e. V., Elke Heitmüller, Head of Group Diversity Management, Volkswagen AG and Dr Miriam von Loewenfeld, Programme Director of the Female Leadership course at the University of Applied Management and founder of the FEM Factory discussed the following issues.

Johannes Pennekamp: How can diversity succeed in companies, how can a business strengthen itself? Every second Dax board member is female, but there are still 700 men for every 100 women.

Tanja Gönner: The question of intervening in regulations is not an easy one for the German economy. If I look across the board, there are too few women in management positions in companies. There are conflicting goals here; for every woman, a man has to take a back seat. It is also unpleasant for the women, very few want to be reduced to the quota. Here we have to talk about striking the right balance.

Elke Heitmüller:  The representation of women in technical professions remains relatively low, but there are gradual signs of change. Over the past years, the establishment of a women’s network comprising 800 members through mentoring programs is a notable development. Importantly, half of these women are determined to continue advancing their careers. Diversity is valuable especially companies must strive to incorporate both male and female perspectives. By embracing diversity, we can benefit from a wide range of viewpoints. Achieving gender parity in executive selection committees is a necessary step towards this goal. It is important to recognize that women and men bring distinct perspectives, and it is by integrating these perspectives that we obtain a comprehensive and holistic understanding. Rather than opposing one another, it is a collaborative synergy that enables us to attain a complete picture of the situation at hand.

Regine Büttner: The importance of prioritizing diversity has not been fully recognized to the extent it should be. . Both in Europe and globally, we are falling behind in terms of establishing the necessary infrastructure to support women, enabling them to aspire to and pursue positions of leadership. Unfortunately, women often disengage from companies during their journey towards top management.

Dr Miriam von Loewenfeld: To address the existing challenges, it is imperative that we establish a robust women’s network and ensure the presence of well-functioning infrastructure. This is particularly crucial in regard to providing sufficient spaces in Kitas (Kindergartens). Currently, there is a shortage of 400,000 places in Germany. It is anticipated that this number will further escalate in the future, due to the ongoing scarcity of skilled workers.

See the full discussion here.

The young economy as a driver of the future: Laura Jorde, Federal Managing Director, Wirtschaftsjunioren Deutschland e. V.

According to recent surveys, a significant majority of young executives – specifically two out of three – harbour pessimistic sentiments when contemplating the future of Germany as a favourable business location. Their apprehensions primarily revolve around the prevailing concerns of excessive bureaucracy, a scarcity of skilled workers, and the burden of labour costs. These disheartening statistics have left many bewildered. Why? Because, throughout various crises, ranging from the impact of the pandemic to geopolitical conflicts and the energy crisis, Germany has consistently embraced a forward-looking perspective. It has steadfastly nurtured the belief that it possesses the capability to overcome challenges. However, it is disconcerting to note that little has been accomplished to tackle the truly pressing issues at hand, which encompass bureaucracy, the lag in digitization, and the dearth of skilled workers.

3 points need to be completely rethought here:

• Securing skilled labour can only succeed if we promote and live diversity, equality and participation. Diversity is not a beauty factor, but a hard economic advantage. Germany and Europe are facing a shortage of 5 million skilled workers. We cannot ignore the potential. The entire society must be redesigned – for everyone.
• Digitisation of the administration, strengthening and use of AI
• The young generation must be included. Young societies are more innovative and dynamic, older societies are more structurally conservative. A study from 2022 says that the young economy is creative, dares to do something, and creates change. We value teamwork, empathy and compassion. That’s what makes businesses successful.

See the full speech here.

Mobility Panel: Europe in the fast lane: Visionary Discussion on the Future of Mobility in 2035

Chaired by Johannes Pennekamp, Head of Department, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the panel included Andrea Fuder, Executive Vice President Volvo Group Purchasing & Chief Purchasing Officer, Volvo Group, Uwe Hochgeschurtz, Chief Operating Officer, Enlarged Europe, Stellantis, Pierangelo Misani, Executive Vice President Research and Development and Cyber, Pirelli Tyre S.p.A. and Hildegard Müller, President, German Association of the Automotive Industry.

Hildegard Müller: The German automotive industry is aiming for climate neutrality by 2050. But we don’t just have to look at new cars, we also have to look at the existing fleet. We need more than just regulation, otherwise, there will be no added value here – just look at China or the inflation reduction act in the US. We need to be open to technology, which is not an end in itself but an opportunity for options. In the car sector, the focus is clearly on electromobility. Synthetic fuels will be used primarily for the existing fleet. The German government has set a target of 15 million electric cars by 2023, but then we will still have 35 million cars in the fleet, 280 million in the EU, and 1.5 billion worldwide. Our goal remains to go electric, but the problem of the existing fleet remains. Europe is pursuing an energy policy that is below what is needed.

Uwe Hochgeschurtz: There has to be a clear framework. The EU has decided that from 2035 no more internal combustion cars may be sold. This means that the car has its best days ahead of it; it will be climate-neutral, with zero emissions. This also applies to the production of vehicles, which should be climate-neutral by 2038. The future belongs to the electric car, at least in the near future. If you put a unit of energy in here, you get 70% out. The efficiency of synthetic fuels is currently much lower, at 25 to 30 per cent. We should not stop research here, we should continue, but e-fuels are not a serious alternative for the next decade.

Andrea Fuder: Trucks and buses are also being converted to CO2-neutral drives, but there is no deadline for this as there is for cars. We are investing in battery and fuel-powered trucks until 2040. For heavy goods transport, the internal combustion engine is still justified but powered by e-fuels or hydrogen. This openness to technology should be maintained. The transition to electrification is one of the most important answers we have to give. But I doubt that the necessary systems will be ready in time. The biggest problem is the network, the electricity grid. The demand for electricity is huge.

You can see the discussion here.

The European Financial Policy Talk with Dr Magnus Brunner, Minister of Finance of the Republic of Austria, and Manfred Schäfers, Business Editor, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

Please see the full interview here.

We would like to express our gratitude to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and its editor, Gerald Braunberger, as well as the F.A.Z. conference team and ESMT for the successful conference and collaboration.

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Panellists: MEP Hildegard Bentele, CEO of Conjuncta Dr Stefan Liebing, Head of Division at the German Foreign Office Sarah Bernardy, radio presenter Tomi Olidapo, and journalist Hannah Ajala.
The discussion will be moderated by the award-winning journalist Mercy Abang.

The session is scheduled to commence at 16:00 and conclude at 17:30 CET, followed by a network reception.

Please register by email at events@united-europe.eu. and let us know if you would like to attend.

You also have the possibility to join our seminar via our Livestream.

If you have any questions or require further information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We hope that you will be able to join us for this debate.

We look forward to a lively discussion!

On 26 April, United Europe organised a panel discussion on the 2024 European elections at the representation of the European Commission in Berlin. Sonja Alvarez Sobreviela, Deputy Bureau Chief of Wirtschaftswoche, spoke to Dr Ralf Stegner, MdB, Dr Nicolai von Ordanza, Senior Fellow at SWP and Hans von der Burchard, Senior Politics Reporter at Politico about leveraging the power of votes for about 130 million citizens in the European Union. Which issues will make it to the campaign trail in 2024, what are the priorities of the European Union in the next decade and how will the EU curb the negative influence of Euroskeptics?

Dr Jörg Wojahn, Head of the EU Representation in Germany and Günther H. Oettinger, President of United Europe opened the debate with a keynote speech on Europe’s geopolitical challenges and Europe’s agenda for 2023.

Will it be western, eastern, northern or southern interests that take centre stage? Will the Conservatives, Greens, or Liberals come out on top? Günther H Oettinger prioritised building a balanced European team that can tackle global issues with a coherent approach and regains credibility on the global stage. “This is particularly important in the face of growing pressure from China and the United States. We need a European Union that reaches a level of world politics capability and sovereignty, something we don’t have at the moment,” he underlined. As European Union member states gear up for the upcoming election, the question on everyone’s lips is: which topic will dominate the campaign? While some hope for a Europe-wide debate on topics such as enlargement and migration, others fear that the election will be dominated by Eurosceptic campaigns that seek to attack local governments.

However, with many European countries still grappling with economic challenges, it’s possible that domestic issues may overshadow more pressing European concerns. Moreover, the upcoming US election and the ongoing fallout from Brexit could also have an impact on the campaign trail, as the strategic position of the West becomes a more pressing issue.

Against this backdrop, it remains to be seen which topic will ultimately come to dominate the European election campaign. Whatever the outcome, the 2024 European election promises to be a critical moment in the continent’s history, as it faces a host of complex challenges that will shape the future of Europe for years to come.

The Spitzenkandidaten fiasco:
In the run-up to the 2024 European Parliament elections, questions are swirling around the Spitzenkandidaten process. Will there even be lead candidates? And if so, will they be able to personalise the campaign and present a common theme? With elections coming up in the US, the UK and the EU, a realignment of the West may be on the horizon.

The current system for electing the Commission president is a point of contention for many member states and governments. While the European Council nominates candidates, it is ultimately up to the Parliament to elect one of the candidates as Commission President. However, as seen with the election of current Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, the vote in the European Parliament may not necessarily decide on the Spitzenkandidat.

This has raised the question of the influence the European Parliament actually has in the decision-making process for Spitzenkandidaten. While the Parliament may have some sway on issues like the Green Deal, decisions on key issues such as the corona vaccination rollout, the Ukraine conflict, and the energy package are typically made by the Commission, not the Parliament. It remains to be seen how much power the Parliament will ultimately wield in shaping the future of the EU. “While the polls have not changed much since 2019, Von der Leyen has a good chance of being re-elected,” Hans von der Burchard predicted during the discussion. “However, whether Joseph Borrell will be re-elected remains to be seen.”

Franco-German relations:
In Eu politics, few partnerships are as important as that between France and Germany. With both nations at the heart of the European Union, their cooperation is seen as essential for the success of the EU project. However, recent events have highlighted tensions between the two countries, with differences causing concern for many observers.

French President Emmanuel Macron has been vocal in his calls for more strategic autonomy in Europe in April 2023, arguing that this is necessary for a bright future for the EU. Speaking recently on the topic, he emphasized the importance of France and German working together as two hearts beating in one soul. However, his German counterpart, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has taken a different approach, describing the Franco-German relationship as a “machine of compromise”.

Despite these differences in approach, the experts on the panel argued that some degree of divergence between the two nations is not necessarily a bad thing. “We hear a lot of public fuss about Franco-German relations, but for what its actually worth, France and Germany have always worked best within the European Union when they had differences,” said Dr Ralf Stegner, a German politician and member of the European Committee at the German Bundestag.

However, concerns remain about the current state of the Franco-German relations. Some French officials worry that Germany is currently too focused on Eastern Europe, neglecting the importance of its partnership with France. Additionally, Germany’s internal politics and coalition constellation may be limiting its ability to engage with European partners.

One major issue is the perception that Germany often prioritizes its national interests over those of the EU as a whole. This was highlighted in the case of the “Doppelwums”, a national initiative to curb energy prices that were not coordinated on a European level.

Many EU partners are criticizing Germany for looking primarily to the US rather than considering the interests of European allies. As Dr von Ordanza noted, “Germany always makes up its mind very late in the game and Germany does not take a clear position during negotiations. This can be frustrating for other EU members who are looking for Germany to take a leadership role in shaping the future of the EU”.

Despite these challenges, many still see the Franco-German relationship as essential for the success of the EU project. Dr von Ordanza highlighted “we need those two countries to agree to have a strong Europe.” Ultimately, the success of the EU may depend on whether France and Germany can find a way to work together effectively and bridge their differences.

Transatlantic relations:
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, many in Europe are closely watching the race, hoping for a candidate who will be supportive of EU interests. The current US President, Joe Biden, is seen as the most pro-European candidate in the race. Dr Ralf Stegner said, “The best outcome for Europe would be his re-election. Nobody is ready for a second term with Trump.”

The transatlantic partnership still faces many challenges. One of the most pressing issues is the situation in Ukraine, which has the potential to escalate into a broader conflict with Russia. Stegner continued, “Washington’s position is of utmost importance and we have to agree with Washington on Ukraine.” However, he also emphasized the importance of keeping certain technical debates about weapons and warfare behind closed doors: “The most successful negotiations happen behind closed doors,” he said. “And in times of war, fast decisions may not be the best. Leadership doesn’t mean being the first to give a direction, but rather being the one who comes to a good decision.” Ultimately what people most want is peace and prosperity and as long as the war is waging Europe won’t negotiate on agriculture or economic policy. “At the moment, all we do is talk about weapons, we need to change that and talk about things that lead to peace. That is what voters in the EU are most concerned about and that is what will move them: war and weapons do not lead to economic growth and prosperity.”

EU Integration & Enlargement:
In the coming years, the European Union will experience a revival of the enlargement process towards Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans, hopefully with the accession of new member states. Credibility is key, and the EU must rebuild its reputation by working with Ukraine, Moldova and the six Western Balkan countries. These eight countries, with roughly the same population as the UK, have a complex history and varying interests that must be carefully navigated. “The world won’t wait for Europe, and if Europe doesn’t get its act together, we will have a bad future,” warns Stegner.

However, progress has been slow, particularly regarding the Western Balkans, where the EU’s credibility has suffered. Reform is needed, including a majority voting principle and a reevaluation of the European Commission’s makeup. Reform must be a priority on top of other strategic challenges, such as shaping Europe’s neighbourhood and projecting the European project in the next decade. Europe needs to do its homework as it risks failing to meet the requirements for countries like North Macedonia to become part of the EU.  Positive signs are emerging, such as the enlargement of NATO with Finland and Sweden’s impending membership.

Stegner emphasized the urgency of action, especially in the face of the migration issue, which must be a main topic of the next election’s agenda. “Wartime has shown people that now is the time to act,” he explains. “Only with international partners can Europe compete in the world and Chancellor Scholz seems to understand this.”

Friendshoring & Trade Agreements:
As the European Union gears up for elections, the effectiveness of its programmes without adequate outreach to Africa, Latin America and Asia to find new partners is coming under scrutiny. Trade deals are set to be one of the major topics on the election agenda, with the controversial Mercosur deal still on the table. Can the EU resist China’s economic pressure without having Latin America as a partner?

The EU’s Green Deal, fitfor55, and Global Gateway programmes are a good start, but implementation has faced significant setbacks. The question remains: how effective are these programmes? Scholz has been travelling the world to make these programmes work and find international partners, with trade deals such as Mercosur likely to be a major election issue. The EU must ask itself whether it can resist pressure without alternative markets, making partnerships crucial. “The lack of progress in finding solutions to these issues is cause for concern,” warned Hans von der Burchard. As the EU faces a number of challenges on the global stage, it is clear that finding new partners in Africa, Latin America, and Asia will be key to its success. The upcoming elections will undoubtedly focus on these issues, and finding effective solutions will be crucial for the EU’s future.

We want to thank the Representation of the European Commission in Berlin for hosting us and our speakers and our guests for participating.

A topic we would like to discuss with the following guests: Dr Jörg Wojahn, Representative of the European Commission in Germany, and Günther H. Oettinger, President of United Europe, will open the discussion with keynote speeches.

Moderator Sonja Alvarez Sobreviela, Deputy Chief Editor of Wirtschaftswoche, will discuss these issues with Dr Ralf Stegner, Member of the German Bundestag (SPD), Dr Nicolai von Ondarza, Senior Fellow at SWP, and Hans von der Burchard, Senior Politics Reporter at Politico.

The discussion will be followed by a Q&A session, a flying buffet and networking with our guests and the United Europe board.

Please register by email at events@united-europe.eu and let us know by 20 April whether you would like to attend the event.

We look forward to a lively discussion.

On 5 December, our panel discussion on transatlantic relations took place after the United Europe Assembly. The event was moderated by Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, a German-American political scientist, consultant, journalist and Executive Vice President/Senior Advisor at the Bertelsmann Foundation. After the opening speech by Günther H. Oettinger,  experts discussed a new geopolitical order and Germany’s role in taking the lead to restore ‘European Power’.

Dr Josef Braml is one of Germany’s most well-known transatlantic experts and has just published a book called ‘Transatlantic Illusions: The New World Order and How We Can Retain Our Role in It.’ He is also the General Secretary of the German Trilateral Commission.

Mattia Nellis has filled in our panel this evening for Ludmyla Melnyk. He heads the office of Robin Wagner, a German MdB of the Alliance 90/Green Party. Mattia is also the co-creator of an independent public affairs office that looks at German Ukrainian relations.

Iryna Stavchuk is the Ukraine manager at the European Climate Foundation and the former deputy minister of the environment in Ukraine.

Kurt Volker is the former US ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Special Envoy on Ukraine until 2019. Kurt has a distinguished diplomatic career serving both Democratic and Republican presidents, but of course, was also the founding executive director of the McCain Institute.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: We’ve just witnessed a state visit of a French president to the United States who made a couple of interesting pronouncements on how he envisions European order in the future. And the German chancellor just published a piece in Foreign Affairs, where he also extends this idea of the Russian role in the European order. Kurt, is it the right time to think about the future of European order yet, when the battlefield in Ukraine is what it is?

Kurt Volker: I want to take your question into a broader context. Vladimir Putin is antithetical to the idea of the European order. Vladimir Putin has a fascist and imperial policy of denying the right of Ukraine to exist as a country, denying the existence of Ukrainians as a people and national identity. He has called them confused Russians. He has compared himself in public more than once to the Great Tsars, Peter the Great or Catherine the Great, ha. Whether it is the authoritarianism at home, the denial of human rights, the cynical and barbarous attacks on civilians, or the war crimes committed in some of the most heinous ways, there is nothing consistent with the idea of freedom, democracy, peace or security in Europe, period. Instead of talking about security guarantees for Russia, we should be demanding from Russia security guarantees for Europe, because Putin is the one who is violating all of the rules, norms and standards.

Josef Braml: It is not in our hands to determine whether there should be a diplomatic solution or not. It’s America. Ukraine wouldn’t be there, despite all the bravery we have seen, without American help. And if America decides there is more important business in Asia – look at Taiwan and China, then Europe has to take care of the wild bear. We have to take care of our own responsibility. We have to think about deterrence. We have to think about nuclear deterrence, even without America.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: Mattia, what’s your read on the current situation, both the close focus on Ukraine and the immediate surround as it relates to the big powers?

Mattia Nelles: I wouldn’t underestimate the Ukrainian ability to influence our decision-making. I wouldn’t say Ukraine is powerless Ukraine should have the major say in this and they will ultimately decide for how long they are willing and able to fight.

Regarding the European order, there is already a shift taking place, which is interesting from a German perspective, a shift away from a Franco-German-dominated EU towards the more northern and central Eastern European centre of gravity. Looking at the future European order, I think the Scandinavian and the Baltic Eastern Europeans will have a much larger stake.

Macron‘s point of view is that Russia has to be brought in from the cold and „we shouldn’t humiliate them“.  For Ukrainians this is enraging, to speak about security guarantees for Russia at a point when Ukraine is fighting for its survival is difficult to bear.

We are already thinking about a new European security order where Russia will eventually democratize and will be part of Europe again. But how do we get there? First Russia must be defeated in Ukraine and there must be a negotiated outcome.

Before we haven’t figured out the first part, the discussion about the second part is theoretical. Of course, Russia will play a role but there can’t be guarantees. First and foremost, these guarantees have to be for Ukraine.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: Kurt, we heard at our gathering at Globesec’s conference very clearly that this war ends when, „Ukraine has won“ and territories are liberated, including Crimea. What is your take here?

Kurt Volker: If the Biden administration were to be seen publicly pushing Ukraine into negotiations to give up territory in exchange for Russia promising to stop killing, they would come under intense domestic criticism in the United States from leaks from the Pentagon, from members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats. There is tremendous unanimity in the mainstream political class, Republican, Democrat, House and Senate professionals in the administration in support of Ukraine and pushback on Russia. The future of Europe is being decided on the front lines of Ukraine. How Europe comes out in terms of an identity of a European Union that is open, inclusive, prospering, that sees Ukraine as an asset, bringing resources, bringing talent, bringing economic growth, bringing energy to Europe. And on the other hand, a Europe where Ukraine is defeated, where Putin is still around and Europe is having to guard itself against further imperialist and fascist attacks against the idea of Europe. That’s a very different Europe. The future of Europe is really being decided through this war.

And then the final point, China is watching. China is not supporting Russia. They’re not giving them military equipment. They’re not evading the sanctions. But they are also watching how Ukraine performs and how the West performs. They would love to see the West disunited. They would love to see a failure. They would love to see Ukraine weak and Putin prevail in a way that would tell them that their efforts to turn around or upend the global political and economic order can be successful. If they see Ukraine winning, Russia weakening itself and the West strengthening and united as a result, that tells them that upending the global political and economic order is not going to be easy.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: So given that you work within the heart of Parliament and given that you’ve been so engaged in this, how do you see these sort of layer cakes of European debates playing out?

Mattia Nelles: The commission is not the problem. The European institutions are actually leading the response to this Russian war. Especially von der Leyen, is leading ahead without having a majority on the membership question of Ukraine. She went ahead and embraced it before there was even a majority in the Council or among the Member States as a whole. So I would say the Commission is exemplary from Ukraine’s perspective and we have a problem of consensus within the Member States, and this is where we get to Germany. Germany’s response has been exemplary to an extent, Germany’s military assistance is better than its reputation. And the European Sky Shield Initiative is another example where the EU is trying to respond to this new reality. And on the downside the last point is about the 100 billion under the special fund that Germany adopted, 0.00 Euro have been spent. Germany has not arrived at this new reality. We are still in a mindset of peace.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: The main wedge that drove straight through the heart of Europe was the question around oil and then the questions around gas and the fact that it took so long to figure out what the floor price of gas would be. Europe is having a hard time holding itself together on these issues for some of the macro questions that were just raised. What is your take on the European cohesion component and also on Germany‘s „leadership“?

Josef Braml: In the German military we had a saying: ‚we hold the ground until the real military shows up, meaning our American friends. Germany didn’t do a good service to its military in the last three decades. I mean, Germany doesn’t have a military, let’s be honest. America does what it does to show strength to Asian allies. They help Ukraine also in part to signal to South Korea, to Japan, we will be there for you if the Dragon gets wild. America is focused on Asia.

But if you push the sanctions against Russia too hard, you may not have regime change in Moscow, but regime change in Washington – if oil prices spike up. America cannot be too harsh on all sanctions against Russia otherwise, they make a good preparation for Trump to come back to the White House. Our American economist, Janet Yellen, told us, don’t be too harsh on the sanctions because that would push inflation much more. So people are already predicting not only an economic crisis but also a financial crisis in the next year. And if that happens, we won’t talk much about Ukraine, believe me.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: There has been some remarkable unity by the Europeans on the humanitarian and financial aid and thinking about what the coffers need to look like to rebuild Ukraine going forward. We’ve already had our first series of donor conferences. If you look at this from your specific perspective, is the current needs assessment for Ukraine lining and matching up?

Iryna Stavchuk: Before recovery, it is time to answer difficult questions, for example on the leadership, coordination, and finance of local institutions to implement projects in Ukraine and how the funds will operate. Ukrainian society expects transparency. We know how corrupt things can be in Ukraine. Ukrainians expect the international community to help Ukraine control and keep things transparent whilst rebuilding institutions based on good governance principles. For me, a person who used to work in government on climate policy issues, a green and climate-smart recovery are key issues.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: Kurt, you observed Ukraine for a long time. Its development toward Euromaidan and forward. When you hear Iryna’s assessment on the rebuilding piece and think about what the domestic climate could be going forward, what’s your assessment?

Kurt Volker: I went to the Lugano conference. I went to the Berlin Conference. I’ve seen all of these discussions about Ukraine‘s economic recovery, and I can assure you that absolutely nothing is happening. And this is a problem. There is no plan. There is no action. There is nobody in charge. There is no Ukraine recovery coordinator in Washington, in the EU or in Berlin or in Paris or London, at the IMF, or at the World Bank. There is zero. So this is a problem. We need to get organized and think about how to do this. But Ukraine cannot afford to wait until after the war. We need to get the economy going.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: Kurt talked about the donor conferences and how you incentivize private investments. What’s your read of this landscape?

Mattia Nelles: I’ve been also at these donor conferences. I would slightly disagree. Von der Leyen is leading ahead by saying we need to adopt macro-financial assistance worth 18 billion for the next year to get Ukraine kind of through the next year because the budget deficit is sky high and without even the pledged aid arriving, the inflation is skyrocketing. We have to focus on Ukraine’s immediate survival, which is not guaranteed economically and militarily. And that’s why grants are very important because Ukraine’s debt ratio to GDP is around 100% now. Ukraine is now already spending 50% of its budget on defense spending, we have to be laser sharp, focused on getting Ukraine through 2023 first and plan for the recovery afterward. And if you take the longer-term needs, we’re looking at $750 billion, what it would cost to rebuild Ukraine. We have to keep the Ukraine economy afloat while we ensure that these rockets are not flying anymore.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: Robert Habeck‘s ministry has just published its own „China strategy“. Look ahead and you may envisage a potential military incursion on Taiwan potentially by 2027. In terms of European responsibility and European power both vis a vis Russia and China, what does that do to European cohesion, European economies, and the model of the European economy that is the foundation of, if it so exists, European power?

Mattia Nelles: Germany is learning lessons from Russia’s war of aggression. And let’s face it, Germany was too dependent on Russian energy. The idea was that rapprochement through trade would work. And the reality is, no, actually it worked the other way. We are more of the autocratic states, they had more influence on us than we on them, I would argue. So with China, it is very difficult because businesses will tell you it’s difficult to decouple. We must make ourselves aware of dependencies and make them interdependencies or diversify away from them. If we just blindly follow the status quo, we’re going to fail.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: How much is happening in the European strategy to achieve something like European power? You’ve just mapped out, the ideal of what a German taxpayer, a European taxpayer certainly, would wish is going on in the halls of government. Planning for all contingencies, figuring out how to refinance European power for the future, and foresight on all these potential scenarios. What’s your wish list?

Josef Braml: We can learn from the US and just print more money. It is called quantitative easing. The US-states are not always on the same page as Washington, but if they take money from Washington with rules and also incentives attached to it: The „golden strings“. If we issue common debt and give money to individual states such as Poland and Hungary we can say: if you take that money, there are rules to comply with. And that’s what we can learn from the United States of America. That’s what America did after the economic crisis, the First World War and the Second World War. And that’s what we have to do in Europe. Issue common debt. Then we are talking about the superpower Europe.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook: Iryna, Europe has committed to undergoing also a green and energy transition that will then have to lead the transition in Ukraine. As you think about European power in the way that you conceptualize it, what is it and how is it going to help us move these big questions of transformation forward?

Iryna Stavchuk: We must resolve the climate change issue. We have to implement all those measures that we are thinking about in terms of the transformation, of economies, different sectors and industries. It makes all economic sense, the energy efficiency and moving towards renewables. The question is how to make things happen, how to put all the barriers of it and how to make things run. There are a lot of opportunities in Ukraine in terms of critical raw materials, in terms of hydrogen, in terms of renewables.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook European societies will have to go through a degree of transformation. How will the transformations manifest themselves in our public sphere? Where will the European and German dance model go in the future with the loss and change that caused a manifest at the heart of our democracies and the attraction of populism?

Kurt Volker: Ukraine for Europe is an asset, not a liability. Ukraine will bring the fastest economic growth on the continent for the next five years after 23 is over. So 24 onward, it has energy resources, renewable energy resources, it has minerals, it has mining, it has rare earth minerals, it has an incredibly talented population. It has one of the best tech sectors in any European country. It is a sophisticated country and an asset for Europe. And Europe will be far stronger and better with Ukraine.

You can find the recording of the panel discussion on our YouTube Channel.

We thank our panellists for their committed participation and our corporate member Würth for their friendly and professional cooperation.

1. The U.S. has shown itself to be a resolute leader of the West and a ‘European power’. How sustainable is the closing of ranks?
2. The intention to make the EU a geopolitical power must take shape: through a powerful foreign policy and defence mechanisms against foreign economic coercion. Could Germany take the lead?

After a welcome note from Günther H. Oettinger, President of United Europe, we are delighted to announce Kurt Volker (Former US Ambassador, Distinguished Fellow, CEPA), Ljudmyla Melnyk (Researcher at Institut für Europäische Politik), Dr Josef Braml (Secretary-General, Trilateral Commission / German Group) and Iryna Stavchuk (Program Coordinator at the ECF and former Deputy Minister at the Ministry of environmental protection of Ukraine) as our panellists.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Exec Vice President/Senior Advisor, Bertelsmann Stiftung, will host our panel discussion.

Please confirm your attendance by sending an email to events@united-europe.eu.

Martin Selmayr highlighted in his keynote speech Europe’s priorities in the current energy crisis and concluded with recommendations: Pooling and filling up storages for next winters through joint purchasing and a European Purchasing Consortium as well as the continuation of energy savings and solidarity among member states. He cautioned that never again Europe must allow borders to be moved by force: “If this happens our continent would be in bloodshed. It is not a small detail. It is the essence of peace on our continent.” he said. “Never again must the rule of the stronger replace the strength of the rule of law. Never again must Europe sit idle and not counter aggression.”

Günther H. Oettinger, President of United Europe, continued with a welcome speech and underlined that the energy crisis, resulting from Russia’s war against Ukraine, requires a “Europeanization” of energy policy and an overcoming of national egoisms: “Energy policy must be Europeanized. All hands on deck, 27 members, the Western Balkans and neighbours, all have to become an energy team.” This means co-funded infrastructure, electricity transported through super grids throughout Europe and joint European research in predominately efficiency and storage technologies.

The first panel of the Energy Security Summit discussed how Europe became so dependent on Russian gas and what Europe should do now. The panel with Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Deputy Director General for Energy at the European Commission, Annika Brack, Head of EU Representative Office at Uniper, Monika Köppl-Turyna, Director at ECO Austria and Angela Köppl, Senior Economist at WIFO, made the following conclusions:

For Mechthild Wörsdörfer at the European Commission, it is clear, that Europe faces an unprecedented crisis: “We have changed in speed to react to the crisis and to help come out of the crisis with measures tackling the short- but also the long-term.” In the past 20 years, the European Commission has been working on an internal energy market. The infrastructure for it is in place and some member states are in a better position than others. The European Green Deal has helped to speed up the development of alternative energy sources. Wörsdorfer acknowledged that still more has to be done: “The supply of LNG gas requires long-term contracts and here we cannot lose sight of our long-term goals to reduce emissions and replace fossil fuels with renewables, for example, green hydrogen. We have to make the bridge to the future and at this point, we cannot commit to long-term supply contracts.” The European Commission is working at full speed on structural changes. Whilst most of the attention is on short-term crisis management, the European Commission is fully committed to the long-term goals, Wörsdörfer concluded.

Annika Brack acknowledged that Uniper, which has been a major client of Gazprom, incurred huge losses due to the crisis: “We have seen a reliable partnership for years and this crisis has simply not been in our books.” Brack commended the European Commission’s efforts to transform Europe’s energy markets in order to get out of this crisis: “I hope that we will keep this accelerated pace by continuously removing regulatory roadblocks. The industry has many solutions ready to come out of the crisis. We are just waiting for roadblocks to be taken out of the way,” Brack concluded.

For Monika Köppl-Turyna this crisis has been an “I told you so” moment: “The European Union needs to wake up and be careful not to replace one dependency with another. We need to build more strategic sovereignty through joint procurement even beyond the European market.” The LNG market is global and Köppl-Turyna recommends going bold and building partnerships with the rest of the world. Europe needs to keep key sovereignty in technology in European hands to prevent past mistakes made with for example solar panels: “With the IPCEI Program, which is commonly known as Important Projects of Common European Interest, Europe offers a great tool. Europe needs to build strategic partnerships across the Atlantic with our liberal partners to counterbalance monopolies.” In Europe, it is well understood that the division of labour and the division of tasks makes economic sense. Comparative advantage can be in labour but also in the production of energy: “We need grids and infrastructure on a European level. It would be an immense economic benefit to europeanize energy,” Köppl-Turyna concluded.

On the second panel, Tim Joris Kaiser, Advisor at the Representation of the European Commission in Austria, Stephan Sharma, Chairman of the Board at Burgenland Energy, Christine Materazzi-Wagner, Director Electricity E-Control, Valerie Faudon, Director General at European Nuclear Society and Andriy Kobolyev, former CEO at Naftogaz, made the following observations on Europe’s Future Energy Prospects.

Tim Joris Kaiser said that diversification is one of the most important aspects in the short-term whilst energy saving is one of Europe’s priorities in the long term. The two big themes for the future are energy efficiency and renewables and business has to contribute through innovation. Kaiser cautioned that beyond fossil fuels demand for rare earth will increase by 5 fold.  The European Commission is already taking measures to avoid running into the next dependency through new partnerships and trade agreements. The European Union is increasing trade with India and is putting lots of effort into the so-called friend-shoring (partnerships with like-minded countries). The commission is driving initiatives such as the Battery Alliance and the Chips Act as well as the Critical Raw Materials Act. A new European Sovereign Act is on the horizon to shape industrial policy. The Recovery and Resilience plans are now going to be extended through RePower EU, pushing e-mobility and energy saving as well as supporting business. RePower EU is not only about energy but also about global competitiveness and sovereignty: “Geopolitics is here to stay. It is not comfortable for the business of politics, but it is what we will have to deal with in today’s reality,” Kaiser concluded.

Stephan Sharma, Chairman of the Board at Burgenland Energy, underlined the dependence on energy in the current economic system: “Energy is key. Regions that provide cheap and sustainable energy will be the winners.” Sharma warned about the obvious climate crisis in Europe: this year alone, 600ha of forests were burning and lakes across the continent are drying out. Currently, the economic system in Europe depends on the availability of cheap fossil fuels. Sharma compared this dependency with an addiction to drugs: ”What is the drug dealer doing, when he sees the buyer is locked in? He is increasing the price and he is playing with uncertainties.” For Sharma there is a clear way out: 100% renewables and zero emissions: “Can Europe do it? Yes! We have hydro, we have wind and we have sun. We also have the technology.” Sharma however cautioned that Europe should be wary about the dependencies on China: “We currently depend 80% on China for solar panels. Only 10 years ago, Germany built 90% of all solar panels. We have to bring it back to Europe. We need a shift in our economy and rebuild the system.”

Christine Materazzi-Wagner, Director Electricity at E-Control, focused her observations on the electricity markets and systems based on different energy sources and various regions around Europe: “In the European Union, you can link all these electricity-generating networks together. We need the generation of power but we also need the high-efficient grids and network development. We have to work on the market design now to be fit for our 2030, 2040 and 2050 programs. Whatever we design now needs implementation time.” Renewables are quite different from legacy energy sources i.e. photovoltaics are small when installed on rooftops and huge as green field photovoltaics. There is solar, thermal, mirror systems, wind turbines in various sizes, hydro, biomass, ocean technologies etc. There are differences on various levels, between but also within the categories and all of which have to be integrated into the electricity system: “It also gets tricky with the forecast of wind and solar power. They are weather /climate dependent and unpredictable,” Europe needs more experts for implementation, the permitting needs to be accelerated and the grid connection improved. “Europe needs the technologies, the market as well as institutional and legal frameworks. In the energy transformation all of the above is intertwined,” Materazzi-Wagner concluded.

Valerie Faudon, Director General at the European Nuclear Society, urged not to lose sight of the net zero goals by 2050, a long-term goal to be aligned with the short-term measures. Faudon underlined that Energy independence is a priority. France depends up to 60% on fossil fuels: “It is a huge challenge to replace that amount of power with renewables alone. To reach the climate goals, low-carbon electricity is needed.” The national plan in France is to reduce energy consumption by 40% through electrification: “Until today only two countries in Europe have decarbonized electricity consumption: Sweden and France. This was possible through a mix of nuclear and renewables. A 100% renewables is very risky. It is challenging to deploy that amount of renewables to meet our power needs in Europe.”

Faudon cautioned that it is still unclear if the storage at the scale needed will be available through renewables: “If we are losing the bet here, the only solution to cover our energy needs is to go back to fossil fuels. We create new dependencies on raw materials and on imports of renewable hydrogen from countries, that have no electricity for their own population.” Faudon concluded that nuclear is a low-carbon solution with the capacity to meet Europe’s energy demands and urged to look at the total system costs of the other options.

Andriy Kobolyev, former CEO at Naftogaz, finds that the energy discussion in Europe lacks pragmatism: “We talked about the concept of sovereignty, comparative competition and competitive advantage. Pragmatism, to my surprise, was not mentioned.” Kobolyev reminded the audience that Gazprom has not been a reliable supplier due to the gas price hike in 2021 before the war started: “Some people simply chose a convenient position and turned a blind eye.” With Russian gas leaving Europe, the current crisis creates a unique momentum for the European Green Deal: “We are still not seeing the pragmatism: Looking at the numbers, it is clear that renewables will not meet the targets of zero-emission. Forgetting about nuclear is a huge mistake.” Kobolyev said. “The war in Ukraine has proven how resilient nuclear energy is. Power plants were under constant attack and are still operating safely. Nord Stream 2 on the contrary is in a very different situation. This is a pragmatic takeaway to be taken further in Europe’s strategic thinking,” Kobolyev concluded.

We would like to thank Prof. Dr Selmayr, Head of Representation of the European Commission in Vienna, the team of the Representation of the European Commission in Vienna and the Senat der Wirtschaft Österreich, participants, guests on-site and online especially our members who have made this event possible. Over 100 guests were listening on-site and online who have been invited from all across Europe. Alan Riley moderated our panel discussions.

United Europe is cooperating on this topic with the Representation of the European Commission and the Senate of the Economy (Austria) in a two-panel discussion at the Representation of the European Commission in Austria/Vienna. You are cordially invited to join us for this Summit in Vienna, on November 3, 2022, from 16h30 until 19h45 CET followed by a reception to discuss what can be done to escape the curse of the energy crisis and autocrats.

Prof. Dr Martin Selmayr, Head of Representation of the European Commission in Austria, will open the summit with a keynote on “EU priorities in the current energy crisis” followed by a welcome note by Günther H. Oettinger, President of United Europe und Hans Harrer, Chairman of the Senat der Wirtschaft, Austria.

17:30 – 18:30  How did we become so dependent on Russian energy and what do we do now?

• Annika Brack, Head of EU Representative Office, Uniper, Brussels
• Monika Köppl-Turyna, Director ECO Austria
• Angela Köppl, Senior Economist, WIFO, Vienna
• Mechthild Wörsdorfer, Deputy Director-General for Energy, European Commission
• Chair: Alan Riley, Senior Fellow Atlantic Council

18:45 – 19:45 Europe’s Future Energy Prospects

• Valerie Faudon, Director General European Nuclear Society
• Andriy Kobolyev, former CEO Naftogaz
• Stephan Sharma, Chairman of the Board Energie Burgenland
• Tim Joris Kaiser, Representation of the European Commission in Austria
• Christine Materazzi-Wagner, Director Electricity E-Control
• Chair: Alan Riley, Senior Fellow Atlantic Council

The summit creates a platform for top-class representatives of the European energy sector, energy analysts and policymakers, shedding light on concrete plans to transform the European energy sector and discussing what needs to happen for energy security to become better coordinated across the EU. How can the EU securely, swiftly, effectively and sustainably manage the painful energy transition without deviating from the 2050 climate targets?

Registration is mandatory for in-person attendance due to limited seating capacity.

Our guests’ safety is our highest priority. Therefore, we kindly ask you to respect the Covid-19 provisions and measures currently in place at the House of the European Union in Vienna.
If possible, please take a COVID test before your visit. During the event, please wear an FFP2 mask.

Please register by sending an email to events@united-europe.eu.

• Jean-Pierre van Aubel, EEAS Expert in Defence Policy and Strategy
• Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar, Director of the Digital Society Institute, ESMT Berlin, Ambassador-at-Large for Cyber Diplomacy and Head of the Cyber Diplomacy Department at the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• Prof. Dr Markus Kaim, Senior Fellow, International Security, SWP
• Moderator: Rieke Schües, Managing Director, United Europe

Highlights of the discussion

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, emphasised in her greeting quoted by Günther H. Oettinger that Putin’s aggression against Ukraine confirmed the need for and the timeliness of the Strategic Compass. Since the end of February, several Member States have announced new and substantive investments in defence. Leaders have committed to devote an additional 200 billion euros to defence capabilities over the coming years. Europe needs not only to spend more on its defence but also to spend better and together. Not only through joint research and development for defence, but also through joint procurement. Fragmentation and duplication are the enemies within. Investments worth 200 billion euros can unlock new economies of scale for our defence industry, leading to lower costs, more focused investments and greater capacity to meet rising demand in defence. More than ever before, the defence of Europe requires the Member States of our Union to act together.

Bodo Lehmann, Head of the Representation of the State of Baden-Württemberg to the European Union in Brussels outlined, that a coherent and cohesive European security and defence policy remains a challenge. A couple of weeks ago, on the 21st of March this year, the European Council approved the so-called Strategic Compass. A new strategy that high representative Josep Borell described as a turning point for the European Union as a security provider. The European Union needs to come to decision-making procedures with qualified majorities and a common EU foreign policy. The Strategic Compass can be a useful starting point for a stronger and more self-confident European Union.

Günther H. Oettinger, President of United Europe, emphasised that history proceeds by slow evolution and sudden accelerations. This is also true for European defence. Our cooperation on defence matters has intensified – slowly but steadily – for several years now. The Strategic Compass is conceived as a step in that process. The European Union should do more for its eastern neighbours, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. The war these days is old-fashioned. It’s about the weapons of the last century. The next war against Europe will come from digital technologies and Europe is not sufficiently prepared for this. This makes today’s discussion on the Strategic Compass all the more important.

Jean-Pierre van Aubel, an EEAS Expert in Defence Policy and Strategy, explained that the Strategic Compass provides for the first time in European history a threat analysis. The war in Ukraine, energy security, food security, the consequences of climate change, regional conflicts, and cyber-attacks are threatening the European Union. The threat analysis is the basis of the Strategic Compass demanding a more comprehensive answer than Europeans are used to. The crisis will not go away, and the European Union needs to be prepared and able to act. In addition, the 81 action plans of the Strategic Compass need to be financed. How do we counter cyber attacks, how can we guarantee access to strategic domains at sea but also in space? The European Union needs to invest in the operational sector, but the Europeans shouldn’t just spend more money, they should spend their money better. The current crisis has made one thing clear: The European Union is still too dependent on others. These days, everyone is talking about European dependencies on Russia. But the dependence on China is many times higher. To strengthen strategic autonomy, the EU should act together with its partners, e.g. strengthen cooperation with NATO, the United Nations and the OSCE. To ensure that the measures adopted by the Strategic Compass are put into practice, the member states have agreed to report to the highest level of the European Council on their progress.

Dr Markus Kaim, a Senior Fellow in the Security Policy Research Group, SWP, would have liked to hear more about the future of US-EU relations in security and defence. “The emphasis is on US-EU relations because we tend to focus exclusively on NATO. And that would be my next question: How do we have to imagine an independent EU? I think that’s one of the homework assignments that European governments need to reflect on. The European Union is interested in becoming an effective security provider. What we desperately need here is political reform. Even if the EU will be equipped with capabilities, the question remains: Who will decide on the use of military means in the future?”

Heli Tiirmaa Klaar, Head of the Cyber Diplomacy Department at the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs outlined, that the EU has many gaps in their defence capabilities. What needs to be done is to close those gaps in the real hard defence capabilities. And I’m glad to hear that there are 81 action plans by the EAS to do this. In the Ukraine war, we have to show strength and power. And it doesn’t matter whether it’s the conventional military or it is the cyber offensive. We have to show some teeth. And this is what Russia is afraid of. Russia is not afraid of our thoughts, prayers or any other humanitarian action. So we have to show strength and power. I think we have quite a good focus on the fight against disinformation. We have had many directives, regulations and other regulatory documents in the last ten years. However, our capabilities still need to improve significantly in the future. The Strategic Compass does not compete with NATO’s objectives.

The complete statement from Ursula von der Leyen is available under the following link  Strategic compass.

We thank our panellists for the engaging discussion. A warm thank-you also goes to our cooperation partner, the Würth Group, especially to Ms Schily and Ms Rau for their great cooperation, and to the staff of the Representation of the State of Baden-Württemberg to the European Union in Brussels.

We are starting with a panel discussion  “Emerging from the Energy Price Crisis: How to build a sustainable backbone for Europe’s industry?” taking place on 31st May from 12h00 – 13h15 (CET). This will be followed by a flying buffet and networking until 14h30 (CET) at the Cercle Royal Gaulois, Rue de la Loi 5, 1000 Brussels.

The panel discussion with Simone Mori, Head of Europe at Enel, Johanna Schiele, Policy Officer Innovation Fund at the European Commission, Philip Lowe, Partner at Oxera, Torjbjorg Klara Fossum, VP at Equinor and Marc-Oliver Arnold, Plant Director at Georgsmarienhütte GmbH, will be moderated by Hanns Koenig, Head of Commissioned Projects at Aurora Energy Research.

The event takes place in compliance with all applicable health and sanitary regulations. The number of participants is limited and therefore we kindly ask you to register before the 20th of May at events@united-europe.eu

We will use Zoom to record the event. Please register here if you wish to attend this meeting online. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing instructions for joining the event.

We are looking forward to seeing You in Brussels or Online.

Irrespective of how this war will end and when, it has already caused a humanitarian catastrophe, upended decades-long business relations, changed the discussion on self-defense and military spending in Europe.

What are the geopolitical consequences of this war, what impact does the war already have on the European economy? Dr Katharina Gnath, Senior Project Manager at the Bertelsmann Foundation, hosted the discussion, on the panel were Günther H. Oettinger, President of United Europe e.V., Prof Dr Alan Riley, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Washington DC, Member of the Advisory Committee of the Energy Community, Vienna, Dr Daniela Schwarzer, Executive Director for Europe and Eurasia, Open Society Foundation and Stefan Kägebein, Regional Director Eastern Europe at German Eastern Business Association (OA) at Federation of German Industries (BDI).

Highlights of the discussion

Katharina Gnath: Germany, the European Union, the international community and the political and economic actors will be after the war in a very different place from where they started before. Where do we stand in terms of Europe’s response to the Russian invasion? What does that tell us about Europe’s geopolitical role?

Daniela Schwarzer: We do not know Putin’s endgame. However, it is becoming apparent that it is an ethnic-nationalist vision of an enlarged Russia that fundamentally questions the right to an independent state in Ukraine, Belarus and probably beyond. Putin will not withdraw from the war for the time being. We see no progress in the negotiations. On the other hand, we see Ukraine, a country that wants to build close relations with the EU and the Western liberal world of democracy.

The EU response was far quicker and far more decided than anything we saw after 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of war in eastern Ukraine. The response was also well prepared across the Atlantic. We have seen a public diplomatic effort by the United States, consisting of a systematic disclosure of intelligence on Putin’s plans, combined with constant exchanges with key European players in Brussels. To this end, there are several economic sanctions and more to come.

We can positively evaluate the cohesion of the EU, but we must know that the cost of this war will be enormous. Not only do we have to consider the cost of sanctions, but 3.7 million people from Ukraine have left their country. The whole number of displaced people is 10 million. An honest effort of burden-sharing between the EU and its neighbours is needed here. Then there is the debate on security and defence. It is about much more than Ukraine and it will possibly reach a far more geopolitical dimension at the moment China takes sides. That’s the big unknown.

Katharina Gnath: The war will have medium-term consequences on the way we conduct our economic policymaking. What impact does the war already have on the European economy? How is the war affecting the future of the single market and its economic framework?

Günther H. Oettinger: Let me start with two sentences: Putin is a war criminal. We are talking about genocide. Even if the economic consequences of this war will be drastic, what is happening in Ukraine right now is more important. There is no city in Ukraine that is not under siege. As Aleppo was, as Grozny was. But we continue with business as usual. The Russian economy is the main loser. It will fall back to 1930. The second loser is Europe, followed by China.

I agree that it is impressive how quickly and collectively Europe acted together with the transatlantic team. But Putin is too strong, too powerful, too angry. We have to see what we can do additionally for the refugees. There will be many more, about 12 Million people are leaving their country. We have to invest Billions for the rebuild of Mariupol, Odesa and Kyiv. Every euro should be spent on a European army. Germany should develop the standards here for a European army in 2040.

Katharina Gnath: Mr Kägebein, you have heard Mr Oettinger saying we should do additional things. We are facing a war criminal and genocide in Ukraine. So we should stand firmly in defending our values and helping Ukrainians to come out of this crisis. We also talked about the costs of economic sanctions. What is your take? How do you advise your business and your companies right now?

Stefan Kägebein: Russia has invaded Ukraine. There is no discussion of what Putin did: It’s a war crime. As far as the economic consequences are concerned, we should first think about the companies operating in Ukraine and trying to maintain their production. How the impact of the sanctions will affect Russia is difficult to predict. The sanctions will not be felt in Russia in the first days, but the Russian economy and residents will feel them in the coming months and years.

It’s important for the companies that we abide by the given rules implementing the sanctions. Businesses expect us to make clear instructions and that the regulations, for example in the financial sector, can be implemented. But that is sometimes not easy. We have received a lot of regulations at short notice, which we have to follow step by step. That is our main task. As far as we can tell, companies have no objections to the sanctions.

Katharina Gnath: I want to tackle the energy question again. It’s probably the most complicated question Germany and Europe are facing. Robert Habeck, minister of the economy and climate change went this weekend to Katar to get another fossil fuel deal to decrease the dependency on Russia’s energy more quickly. What should European policymakers do regarding this energy dependency?

Alan Riley: We are at the end of one epoque, entering another unknown epoque. The European Union with the United States is actually in a stronger position. We need to have some degree of confidence in this. We can deal with the dependency on Russian oil and gas and the dependencies of Europe and Germany. The five million barrels of oil per day supplied by Russia provide 40% of the Russian tax rate. The strategic reserve in the hands of the members of the OPEC countries is 1.5 billion barrels of oil. We can make it clear to the Russians that we can draw on the strategic reserves.

Katharina Gnath: If we know how to manage it, why are people so nervous about the energy issue?

Alan Riley: We are not in a normal situation. Part of the trouble is that the policymakers in Brussels, Berlin and across the Union and the Western Alliance haven’t changed their headsets and it is very difficult to do this. It takes some time to move in another direction.

Katharina Gnath: It will cost to invest in a new energy model. How can we meet the costs at the national and European levels? Do you see other ways of how we could finance the costs of the war?

Günther H. Oettinger: This war will go on for a long time. Putin’s strategy is to starve the Ukrainian people. If the port city of Odessa falls into Putin’s hands, we can forget about any exports or imports.

Gas from Norway and the Netherlands is enough for our 40 million households in Germany, but German industry is very energy-intensive. BASF needs more energy annually than the whole country of Denmark. If we want to destroy our pharmaceutical and chemical industries, steel, copper, aluminum, we don’t need gas from Putin.

I am surprised that my political party, Merz and Röttgen, want to block gas imports and a green minister is warning that we need exactly this gas. Qatar! Nice to have, but we have no LNG terminals! No ship can come to Germany! While Poland and the Baltic States have their LNG terminals, there are terminals in Spain and Portugal, but there is no gas pipeline from Spain to France to Germany! For investors, it would be better to invest in solar plants in Spain than in Emsland. If you are looking for the best locations for wind and solar plants, you should look at the European map and not just the Bavarian or North Rhine-Westphalian one. But the member states are not willing to europeanize energy policies.

What about our nuclear power plants? Why don’t we prolonge these three nuclear power plants? You don’t have solar and wind 24/7. And the main message is: you can store oil, gas or cole but not wind. You can’t store those volumes of electricity we need in our industries. If there is no wind and no solar we need gas to power. So, we can change something, we can speed up something but on a midterm Europe and Germany are depending on imports. We have to be more realistic. We should have a more European distinction.

Katharina Gnath: Before the audience gets involved in the discussion, I come back to Daniela Schwarzer. Could you comment on Günther H. Oettinger’s statement that China is the winner in this geopolitical situation?

Daniela Schwarzer: Will Germany’s export-oriented business model be able to prevail in a world dominated by armed conflicts? From the German perspective and our business model indeed old truth can no longer be held up because for us economic openness and economic interdependence were a way not only to make money but also to build stability.

If the situation escalates in the sense that China becomes an active supporter of Russia we will have a very big problem. China and Russia have built closer ties over the past years. They have run their first military joint operation in 2018. They decided to build a new gas pipeline from Siberia to China. To date, we do not see a real strategic alliance emerging, but now Putin needs China to win the war. For Europe, if China goes into that kind of deal, that would be a huge problem. It may not only change the military dynamics in Ukraine and possibly neighbouring countries but it will also fundamentally tilt the balance between the western liberal democratic bloc towards a closer bloc of militaristic states.

We thank our panellists for the lively discussion.

We would like to thank our Advocate, Hanns Koenig from Aurora Energy Research, for his contribution to this event.

If time permits, we will have a Q&A session at the end, where questions from the audience will be taken.

For our privacy policy please have a look at our conditions of participation.

We are looking forward to a lively discussion.